Op-eds & commentary
“Latin American Organized Crime’s Real Target: Local Government,” Americas Quarterly, Feb. 18, 2025.
“Why Trump Misunderstands the Cartels,” New York Times, Feb. 5, 2025.
“Trump’s Latin American Gamble,” The Atlantic, Jan. 29, 2025.
“A new Monroe doctrine is unlikely to work for the US in South America,” Financial Times, Jan. 3, 2025.
“Illegal Gold Finances Latin America’s Dictators & Cartels. The United States Must Lead the Fight Against It,” with Steven Holmes, CFR.org, Nov. 15, 2024.
“Drug Traffickers Launder Millions Through Remittances. Here’s How to Stop Them.” with Steven Holmes and Mariana Fernandez Rubach, CFR.org, Oct. 22, 2024.
“Brazil’s Largest Mafia Is Entering Politics. The Government Must Act.,” New York Times, Oct. 4, 2024.
“Organised crime has taken on a different shape in Latin America,” Financial Times, Oct. 21, 2024.
“‘Total Peace’ Is Dead. For Petro, Partial Peace Is the Best Remaining Option,” with Steven Holmes, CFR.org, Sept. 24, 2024.
“Peru’s Anti-Law Enforcement Turn Is a Threat to Regional Stability,” Americas Quarterly, Aug. 26, 2024.
“Nicolás Maduro’s landslide defeat hasn’t dislodged him. Is there still hope for Venezuela?” Los Angeles Times, Aug. 8, 2024.
“Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro could lose a landslide election. But will it matter?” Los Angeles Times, July 22, 2024.
“In Latin America, Your Zip Code—Not Just Your Nationality—Determines Whether You Live in a Democracy,” CFR.org, July 9, 2024.
“Why Six Countries Account for Most Migrants at the U.S.-Mexico Border,” with Steven Holmes and Sabine Baumgartner, CFR.org, July 9, 2024.
“For Sheinbaum, a Security Challenge in AMLO’s Home State,” Americas Quarterly, July 1, 2024.
“Peru’s Brewing Migration Storm,” Americas Quarterly, April 1, 2024.
“Can Mexico’s Next President Control the Military?” Journal of Democracy Online, March 2024.
“El Salvador’s Economy Will Test Bukele 2.0,” Americas Quarterly, Feb. 14, 2024.
“The Drop in Crime in El Salvador Is Stunning, but It Has a Dark Side,” with Lucas Perelló, New York Times, Feb. 8, 2024.
“Tough New Immigration Rules Risk Empowering the Cartels,” TIME, Jan. 9, 2024.
“Organized crime threatens Latin America’s democracies and fuels migration. The U.S. can help,” Los Angeles Times, Jan. 2, 2024.
“Will coupmongers stop Guatemala’s president from taking office?” Guardian, Dec. 18, 2023.
“Visualizing 2024: Trends to Watch,” with Matthew P. Goodman, Kat Duffy, Zongyuan Zoe Liu, and Liana Fix, CFR.org, Dec. 13, 2023.
“Do Latin America’s Top Prosecutors Have Too Much Power?” Americas Quarterly, Nov. 30, 2023.
“Ecuador’s 2023 Election: What Noboa’s Victory Means,” CFR.org, Oct. 19, 2023.
“Why New York Is Experiencing a Migrant Crisis,” CFR.org, Oct. 5, 2023.
“The Coming Crisis for Latin America’s Left-Wing Leaders,” Americas Quarterly, Sept. 27, 2023.
“The GOP’s posturing will push Latin America into China’s arms,” Dallas Morning News, Sept. 26, 2023.
“Petro’s Total Peace Plan Turns One: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly,” with Steven Holmes, CFR.org, Aug. 30, 2023.
“Guatemala chose a new pro-reform president. Can he stem corruption and migration?” Los Angeles Times, Aug. 26, 2023.
“A Shock to Guatemala’s System,” with Lucas Perelló, Journal of Democracy Online, Aug. 21, 2023.
“This Reformist Outsider Could Become Guatemala's Next President,” TIME, Aug. 19, 2023.
“Even in Guatemala’s Small Towns, This Election Feels Huge,” Americas Quarterly, Aug. 17, 2023.
“Ecuador’s Crime Surge Is Devastating, but There Is a Way Forward,” New York Times, Aug. 16, 2023.
“One thing Joe Biden could learn about Latin America from Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis,” Los Angeles Times, Aug. 10, 2023.
“The Predatory Economy Thriving in Panamá’s Darién Gap,” Americas Quarterly, July 27, 2023.
“In Peru, Opposition to Democratic Backsliding Is Growing. Without Leaders, it Might Not Get Far,” CFR.org, July 20, 2023.
“Seven Decades After Guatemala Coup, Bernardo Arévalo Sees a Dramatic Rise,” Americas Quarterly, June 27, 2023.
“Guatemala’s Election Could Sound Democracy’s Death Knell,” World Politics Review, June 23, 2023. 2023.
“A Surge in Crime and Violence Has Ecuador Reeling,” World Politics Review, June 9, 2023.
“South America’s Minimum Consensus on Democracy Is Gone,” CFR.org, May 31, 2023.
“Ecuador's Democratic Breakdown,” Journal of Democracy Online, May 23, 2023.
“What happened to Ecuador? How crime and power struggles brought a democracy to the brink,” Los Angeles Times, May 19, 2023.
“In Ecuador, Has Correísmo Changed Its Tune?" Americas Quarterly, May 18, 2023.
“Brazilian agribusiness is killing the Amazon. The international community can help stop it,” with Beatriz Rey, Miami Herald, May 11, 2023.
“Crisis in Quito: President Guillermo Lasso Heads to Impeachment Vote,” CFR.org, May 9, 2023.
“Stopping Illegal Gun Trafficking Through South Florida,” CFR’s Renewing America Blog, April 25, 2023.
“Why the Situation in Cuba Is Deteriorating,” CFR.org, April 25, 2023.
“How Jimmy Carter Transformed U.S.-Latin America Relations,” Americas Quarterly, April 6, 2023.
“How Maduro Survived,” Journal of Democracy Online, March 28, 2023.
“From Mexico to Brazil, Latin America’s Democracies Face a Common Threat From Within,” with Beatriz Rey, Los Angeles Times, March 26, 2023.
“How Peru’s Crisis Could Send Shockwaves Through the Region,” with Ariana Rios, CFR.org, March 22, 2023.
“Nayib Bukele’s Growing List of Latin American Admirers,” Americas Quarterly, Feb. 16, 2023.
“The Midterms Will Change U.S. Latin America Policy, Just Not the Way You Think,” Americas Quarterly, Nov. 10, 2022.
“Lima’s New Mayor Resembles a Peruvian Bolsonaro,” Americas Quarterly, Oct. 6, 2022.
“Can Petro Pull Off ‘Total Peace’ in Colombia?” Americas Quarterly, Sept. 26, 2022.
“Why Chileans Might Vote to Keep Their Dictatorship-Era Constitution,” with Lucas Perelló, Foreign Policy, Sept. 3, 2022.
“Traditional farming practices are being boosted in Guatemala,” Economist, Sept. 1, 2022.
“Latin America’s Parliamentarism Problem,” Americas Quarterly, Aug. 17, 2022.
“Rodolfo Hernández planea instaurar un gabinete paralelo de empresarios,” Washington Post, June 16, 2022.
“Here comes Rodolfo: Colombia’s presidential run-off on June 19th is close,” Economist, June 16, 2022.
“The Realpolitik of Gustavo Petro,” Foreign Policy, May 28, 2022.
“Wildcard: The 76-Year-Old Newcomer Shaking Up Colombia’s Election,” Americas Quarterly, March 28, 2022.
“Costa Rica’s Boring Elections Are a Model for the World,” with Lucas Perelló, Foreign Policy, Feb. 4, 2022.
“Millennial politicians are shaking up Latin America. Here’s how they differ from the old guard,” with Paul Angelo, Washington Post, Jan. 12, 2022.
“Castro Will Have Her Hands Full Cleaning Up Honduras’ Mafia State,” World Politics Review, Jan. 5, 2022.
“In Chile’s Presidential Race, Kast and Boric Are Not Equally Dangerous Extremes,” with Lucas Perelló, Foreign Policy, Dec. 17, 2021.
“Honduras voted for change. Can Xiomara Castro, the president-elect, deliver?” with Paul Angelo, Washington Post, Dec. 1, 2021.
“Biden’s democracy promotion faces a major test in Honduras,” with Paul Angelo, Univision, Nov. 26, 2021.
“Honduras’s Pivotal Election,” with Lucas Perelló, Foreign Policy, Nov. 24, 2021.
“To Buck Global Pressure, Latin America’s Dictators Turn to ‘Isolation-Proofing,’” World Politics Review, Nov. 23, 2021.
“A Socially Conservative Left is Gaining Traction in Latin America,” with Paul Angelo, Americas Quarterly, June 23, 2021.
“Why Peru’s next leader was elected by a less than 1 percent margin,” with Cynthia McClintock, Washington Post, June 10, 2021.
“Peru’s New President Will Polarize the Country,” with Lucas Perelló, Foreign Policy, June 4, 2021.
“Why Biden’s anti-corruption agenda should proceed with caution,” Responsible Statecraft, June 3, 2021.
“Either Way, Peru’s Election Is Bad News for Anti-Graft Efforts,” World Politics Review, May 20, 2021.
“Chilean Voters Have Turned Their Backs on Traditional Coalitions. What’s Next?” with Lucas Perelló, Foreign Policy, May 17, 2021.
“Ecuador Just Voted Against Populism, but Its Democracy Is Far from Healthy,” Foreign Policy, April 15, 2021.
“Making Anti-Corruption Reforms Stick in the Northern Triangle,” CFR.org, March 12, 2021.
“In El Salvador, Broken Promises Have Forced the Establishment Out,” with Lucas Perelló, Foreign Policy, March 2, 2021.
“With Maduro’s legislature installed, what’s next for Venezuela’s opposition?” Global Americans, Jan. 8, 2021.
“Why Peru’s soft coup failed,” Global Americans, Dec. 3, 2020.
“Why Maduro is relying on courts to silence dissent more than ever before,” Global Americans, July 23, 2020.
“Three Big Challenges Facing Colombia’s Outsider Mayors,” Americas Quarterly, Oct. 30, 2019.